On July 30, 2026, Bloomberg reported that Goldman Sachs upgraded its forecast for the total stock buyback amount of S&P 500 constituent companies in 2026 to $1.3 trillion, an increase of about 12% year-on-year, setting a record high. David Kostin, the bank's Chief Equity Strategist, stated that strong corporate cash flows, declining financing costs, and the focus of tech giants on market capitalization management are the main drivers behind the expansion of buyback scale. This news garnered widespread attention in global capital markets. US stocks regained support after a strong performance during the second-quarter earnings season. Concurrently, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted after the July interest rate meeting that a rate-cutting cycle might begin in September if inflation continues to decline. The combination of multiple positive factors makes US stocks a focal point for global capital in the summer of 2026. For Vietnamese investors, the US stock market, as the world's largest capital market, is demonstrating unprecedented attractiveness. So, why is buying US stocks still a strategy worth serious consideration? This article will analyze the topic from the perspectives of the buyback trend, corporate profitability, monetary policy, and risk diversification. Record-Breaking Buyback Trend: Companies Confidently Back Themselves with Real Money Stock buybacks are a practice where listed companies use idle funds to repurchase their own shares on the open market, which reduces the number of outstanding shares and improves earnings per share and stock prices. Goldman Sachs's forecast of $1.3 trillion implies that S&P 500 constituent companies will use about 4% of their market capitalization for buybacks, which is extremely rare in history. The rise of the buyback trend is inseparable from several factors. First, continuous investment by large American technology companies in areas such as artificial intelligence and cloud computing has generated strong cash flows. For example, companies like Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia all had cash reserves exceeding $100 billion at the end of the second quarter, significantly enhancing their ability to return capital to shareholders. Second, as US Treasury yields decline from high levels, the cost of corporate bond buybacks decreases, especially for blue-chip companies with high credit ratings, who are more inclined to take advantage of the low-interest window. Finally, management's confidence in the company's future profitability is also a positive signal released by buybacks. Buybacks not only directly boost stock prices but also improve the market supply-demand relationship. Historical data shows a significant positive correlation between the scale of buybacks and the long-term trend of the S&P 500. The Goldman Sachs report points out that if the total buyback amount in 2026 materializes, it will contribute about 3% of the index return, becoming another key pillar alongside earnings growth. Why Buy US Stocks? Four Core Advantages Not to Be Overlooked 1. The Moat Advantage of Global Leading Companies The US stock market boasts the most competitive group of companies globally, from Apple and Microsoft to Nvidia and Tesla, which have established strong technological barriers and brand value in sectors such as technology, consumer goods, and healthcare. According to FactSet data, as of the second quarter of 2026, the average net profit margin of S&P 500 constituent companies has increased to 12.5%, significantly higher than other major global indices. Investing in US stocks is equivalent to indirectly holding equity in the global innovation engine. 2. The Tailwinds of Federal Reserve Monetary Easing Expectations Current US inflation has fallen from the high point in 2024 to around 2.5%, close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates in September, potentially cumulatively reducing rates by 50 to 75 basis points before the end of 2026. Historical experience shows that US stocks have achieved an average return exceeding 10% within 12 months after the first rate cut, with the technology and financial sectors performing particularly well. The loose liquidity environment provides strong support for US stock valuations.

3. The Value of Asset Allocation for Risk Diversification

For Vietnamese investors, allocating some assets to US stocks is an important risk diversification method. The Vietnamese stock market is small, highly concentrated in certain industries, and is susceptible to geopolitical and foreign exchange fluctuations. The US stock market covers dozens of industries and thousands of stocks, with low correlation to the Vietnamese market. Against the backdrop of increasing global economic uncertainty, cross-market allocation can effectively smooth portfolio volatility and enhance risk-adjusted returns.

4. The "Safe-Haven Property" of US Dollar Assets

As a major global reserve currency, US dollar assets are often favored during crises. Although the VND to USD exchange rate has remained stable in the first half of 2026, in the long run, holding USD-denominated assets can naturally hedge against the risk of VND depreciation. The State Bank of Vietnam maintains a relatively conservative monetary policy among major Southeast Asian central banks, with VND deposit rates falling below 2%, while the long-term annualized return of US stocks ranges between 8% and 10%, showing a clear interest rate advantage.

How Can Vietnamese Investors Participate in the US Stock Market?

As Vietnam's financial openness continuously increases, the channels for local investors to participate in the US stock market are becoming more diversified. Currently, Vietnamese retail investors can trade NYSE and Nasdaq stocks directly through the agency trading services of several local securities firms. Furthermore, mutual funds and ETFs offer indirect investment paths, such as low-fee products like iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), which are very suitable for investors new to the US market. In terms of capital flow, the State Bank of Vietnam has not fully lifted foreign exchange controls, and personal annual foreign currency purchase quotas of $50,000 must still comply with declaration regulations. Investors should monitor the real-time exchange rate when exchanging VND for USD and choose a suitable bank or broker. VNCapital Asia reminds that cross-border investment also requires considering transaction fees, custody fees, and potential capital gains tax. The capital gains tax rate imposed by the US on non-resident investors is 0%, but the dividend withholding tax is 30%, which can be reduced to 15% by utilizing tax treaties.

Risk Warnings for Investing in US Stocks

• Market Volatility Risk: US stocks do not only go up; there was a correction of about 15% in 2025. Investors should use dollar-cost averaging strategies to smooth costs and avoid buying high and selling low.
• Exchange Rate Risk: The VND to USD exchange rate is not static; if the VND appreciates significantly, the local currency return from US stock investment may be diluted. It is recommended to enter the market through phased currency exchange.
• Policy Risk: The pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may be slower than expected, which could lead to a compression in US stock valuations. Pay attention to core PCE data and the Fed's rhetoric, and adjust positions in a timely manner.

Conclusion: View the Buyback Trend Rationally; Long-Term Allocation to US Stocks is Timely

Goldman Sachs raised its buyback expectations, revealing the strong fundamentals of American businesses, while the potential easing cycle of the Federal Reserve provides additional momentum to the market. For Vietnamese investors, the US stock market remains an overseas market with long-term investment value and effective risk diversification. However, all investments must be made according to one's capacity; it is recommended to keep US stock allocation between 20% and 30% of total assets, based on one's risk tolerance, and adhere to the philosophy of long-term holding. The information provided in this article is for reference only and does not constitute specific investment advice. For more special reports on the VND to USD exchange rate trend and cross-border capital flow policies, please refer to VNCapital Asia.