In the just-concluded second quarter of 2026, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) released data showing that Vietnam's foreign exchange reserves officially surpassed the $120 billion mark, an increase of nearly 8% from the beginning of the year, setting a new historical high. This data not only reflects Vietnam's strong export resilience and sustained foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows but also sparked a deep discussion among domestic high-net-worth individuals about the direction of capital: When VND-denominated assets appear to be thriving, why do we still need to buy U.S. stocks across the ocean?
The 'Sweet Burden' Behind Record Forex Reserves
According to balance sheet estimates disclosed by the State Bank of Vietnam in early August, as of the end of July 2026, Vietnam's foreign exchange reserves stood at approximately $122 billion. This was driven by a cumulative trade surplus exceeding $18 billion in the first seven months, along with steady FDI inflows into manufacturing and technology sectors. However, the massive forex reserves also brought 'excess liquidity' pressure to Vietnam's domestic monetary policy.
To maintain the stability of the Vietnamese Dong, the central bank had to conduct sterilization operations by issuing central bank bills, which to some extent raised funding costs in the domestic financial market. Meanwhile, Vietnam's Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a year-on-year increase of 3.8% in July. Although still within the government's 4.5% ceiling, sticky core inflation made the real interest rate environment delicate. For investors holding large amounts of VND cash, anxiety about preserving and growing asset value did not dissipate with the ample forex reserves.
Why Invest in U.S. Stocks: An Inevitable Choice to Hedge Structural Currency Risks
In VNCapital.asia's macro analysis framework, Vietnam is currently transitioning from a 'managed floating exchange rate regime' to a more flexible mechanism. Despite sufficient forex reserves, the long-term trend of the Vietnamese Dong against the U.S. dollar (USD/VND) still faces pressures from imported inflation and regional competition. Looking back at the first half of 2026, the USD/VND exchange rate fluctuated narrowly between 25,200 and 25,500, appearing stable on the surface but implying central bank intervention.
This is one of the core logics behind why invest in U.S. stocks—currency diversification. As the world's largest capital market, U.S. stocks are denominated in U.S. dollars. Against the backdrop of potential erosion in the real purchasing power of the Vietnamese Dong, holding high-quality dollar-denominated assets is the most direct way to hedge long-term currency depreciation risks. Especially when Vietnam's domestic real estate market faces tightening regulations and gold prices are volatile due to international geopolitical influences, the liquidity advantage and high transparency of U.S. stocks make them the preferred destination for Vietnamese cross-border capital investment.
Global Leader Dividends: Value Irreplaceable by Vietnam's Local Market
Although Vietnam's stock market (VN-Index) performed steadily in 2026, its market capitalization structure is heavily weighted towards banking, real estate, and raw materials, with relatively weak technology and innovative pharmaceutical sectors. For Vietnamese investors looking to capture dividends from artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and biotechnology, U.S. stocks are an indispensable piece of the puzzle.
Take the recent AI wave as an example. Despite the emergence of some excellent tech startups in Vietnam, the companies truly defining global AI infrastructure remain U.S. stock giants like NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Google. In early August, as the market anticipated a potential preventive rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, the Nasdaq index once again showed strong upward momentum. For Vietnamese investors, buying into these global leaders through a U.S. stock account is not just about capturing capital gains from rising stock prices but also sharing in the excess returns brought by global technological progress. This 'global leader premium' is currently difficult for Vietnam's local market to provide.
Risk Diversification: Asset Allocation Beyond Geographic Boundaries
'Don't put all your eggs in one basket' is particularly important in the current Vietnamese market environment. Although Vietnam's economy is strong, it is highly dependent on export-oriented manufacturing and is extremely vulnerable to changes in demand from the U.S. and the EU. The latest trade data shows that Vietnam's exports to the U.S. account for nearly 30% of its total exports, a single-market dependency that poses potential macroeconomic risks.
Buying U.S. stocks means investors can allocate assets to sectors with lower correlation to Vietnam's economic cycle. For example, allocating to U.S. healthcare, consumer staples, or utilities sectors can effectively hedge against the risk of a growth slowdown in Vietnam due to global trade frictions. This diversification effect brought by cross-border capital investment is a scientific path to reducing the volatility of household asset portfolios.
Policy Dividends: The Trend of Facilitating Cross-Border Investment
It is worth noting that the State Bank of Vietnam recently sent positive signals regarding pilot programs for capital account liberalization. To alleviate the sterilization costs caused by high forex reserves, Vietnamese regulators are studying the relaxation of quota limits for individuals and enterprises engaging in overseas portfolio insurance. Although the Vietnamese Dong capital account is not yet fully convertible, the threshold for U.S. stock wealth management and account opening through compliant channels is gradually lowering.
Overall, Vietnam's record-high foreign exchange reserves reflect the nation's economic strength, but this does not mean VND assets can fully replace dollar-denominated assets. On the contrary, in an era of abundant capital where the purchasing power of the local currency faces inflationary tests, utilizing the U.S. stock market for long-term asset allocation is both an aggressive move to achieve wealth appreciation and a prudent path to safeguarding wealth security. Amid the noise of Vietnam's foreign exchange market, U.S. stocks remain the giant ship capable of navigating through cycles.
