US Stocks Start August Turbulently: Tech Divergence Intensifies, AI Concept Stocks Face 'Performance Autopsy'

Entering August 2026, the US stock market did not continue the steady rebound momentum of July. Instead, it experienced severe volatility amid shifting global capital flows and diverging performance among AI concept stocks. As of August 5, the S&P 500 index had retreated over 2% in the past week, while the Nasdaq Composite's decline exceeded 3.5%. US stock positions held by Vietnamese investors through cross-border brokerage accounts are facing their toughest stress test this year.

The core reason for this round of adjustments is not a macro systemic risk, but severe internal divergence among AI concept stocks. Last week, Q2 earnings reports from several AI application-layer companies showed that actual revenue conversion from their AI investments fell far short of market expectations. Meanwhile, although AI infrastructure giants like Nvidia still delivered strong performance, market expectations for their future growth rate have been downgraded from 'explosive growth' to 'steady growth.' This subtle shift in expectations triggered concentrated unwinding of highly leveraged positions.

For Vietnamese investors, this pullback has a dual impact. On one hand, the net value of accounts holding high-valuation AI concept stocks has seen significant drawdowns. On the other hand, the USD/VND exchange rate strengthened slightly in early August, briefly touching the 25,500 VND per 1 USD mark, further amplifying the paper losses of VND-denominated US stock portfolios. Although the State Bank of Vietnam quickly smoothed exchange rate fluctuations through open market operations, short-term pressure from cross-border capital flows persists.

US Stock Boot Camp In-Depth Analysis: Resurgence of AI Bubble Theory or a Rare Golden Pit?

Facing market panic, the US Stock Boot Camp under VNCapital Asia held a special post-market training session on August 4, where guest veteran US stock trading mentor Nguyen Minh Duc (pseudonym) conducted a thematic breakdown. Addressing the resurgent 'AI bubble theory,' Nguyen offered a distinctly different practical perspective.

'The current decline is essentially the growing pains of the market switching from the 'storytelling' phase to the 'bookkeeping' phase,' Nguyen pointed out during the session. 'From 2024 to the first half of 2026, AI investment logic was mainly supported by model parameters, computing scale, and conceptual imagination. But starting with this year's Q2 earnings reports, the market demands that AI companies prove they have sustainable profitability. Those that cannot prove it will naturally see their stock prices revert to the mean.'

Through specific case studies, the Boot Camp found that AI concept stocks with the steepest declines in this correction generally share these characteristics: an abnormally high R&D spending ratio but vague commercialization paths, slowing user growth data, and over-reliance on a single client. In contrast, true AI infrastructure leaders with strong moats, such as companies providing core GPU computing power, experienced much smaller stock price pullbacks than the market average and even showed signs of capital re-entry this week.

'This is precisely the 'separating the wheat from the chaff' strategy that the US Stock Boot Camp has always emphasized,' Nguyen added. 'For Vietnamese investors, now is not the time to panic and exit, but an excellent window to use volatility to concentrate positions from third- and fourth-tier AI concept stocks into first-tier leaders. History has repeatedly proven that deep corrections in every technological revolution are golden pits for long-term investors.'

Practical Strategies for Vietnamese Investors: Three Trading Disciplines to Navigate Volatility

Considering the current US stock market environment and the characteristics of Vietnam's local cross-border capital flows, the US Stock Boot Camp's latest August course focuses on strengthening three practical trading disciplines for Vietnamese students:

1. Front-load Currency Hedging to Lock in USD Exposure Risk

As the VND/USD exchange rate has recently shown intensified two-way volatility, the Boot Camp advises students with larger capital to prioritize currency risk as the primary consideration when building US stock positions. The course demonstrates in detail how to use over-the-counter foreign exchange forward contracts or USD-denominated structured deposits to hedge currency risk for over 50% of the principal. For small and medium investors, it recommends choosing USD dollar-cost averaging products offered by local Vietnamese banks to smooth out exchange rate costs.

2. Focus on the 'AI + Cash Flow' Dual-Excellence Model, Reject Pure Concept Speculation

In stock selection strategy, the Boot Camp has developed a new 'AI + Cash Flow' dual-excellence screening model. This model requires target companies not only to possess technological leadership in the AI field but also to meet hard indicators such as positive free cash flow for two consecutive quarters and a capitalization rate of R&D investment below 30%. Back-testing with this model shows that the average pullback of qualifying AI leader stocks in this correction was only 6%, far lower than the over 20% decline of pure concept stocks.

3. Use Pre-Market and After-Hours Data to Capture Institutional Rebalancing Signals

The US Stock Boot Camp particularly emphasizes that during earnings season combined with market turbulence, abnormal trading volume in the pre-market and after-hours sessions often signals the direction of institutional investors' position adjustments. Through real-time case teaching, the course demonstrates how to use Level 2 order flow data to identify 'dark pool' accumulation behavior by large capital in AI leader stocks. For instance, in after-hours trading on August 3, a certain AI computing power leader saw multiple consecutive active buy orders worth millions of dollars, providing a clear signal for a short-term rebound at the next day's open.

Market Outlook: The Second Wave of AI Dividends Focuses on Three Sub-Sectors

Looking ahead to the second half of 2026, the chief strategist of the US Stock Boot Camp believes the AI industry will enter a second wave of dividends driven by 'application implementation.' Unlike the first wave of hardware infrastructure investment, the core opportunities in the second wave will concentrate on the following three sub-sectors:

• AI Enterprise SaaS Services: Software companies that can truly embed AI capabilities into enterprise workflows and charge on a per-seat basis will undergo a valuation re-rating. These companies possess high customer stickiness and predictable subscription revenue, making them high-quality assets for navigating cycles.
• AI Terminal Devices: With the maturation of lightweight AI large model technology, AI capabilities are accelerating their migration to the device side of smartphones, PCs, and even IoT devices. Giants with terminal device ecosystems and self-developed chip capabilities will be the biggest beneficiaries of this trend.
• AI Energy Infrastructure: The enormous electricity demand from computing centers has triggered global power supply tensions. Energy companies that can provide stable, clean, and low-cost electricity to AI data centers are seeing their valuation logic shift from traditional utilities to technology infrastructure.

'When allocating to US stocks, Vietnamese investors must look beyond short-term emotional volatility and examine AI investment with a longer-term industry perspective,' the US Stock Boot Camp wrote in its course summary. 'Every moment of market panic is creating opportunities for excess returns for those investors who truly understand technological trends and strictly adhere to trading discipline. This is the core value of the US Stock Boot Camp.'

Cross-Border Capital Perspective: Vietnam's Foreign Exchange Policy Provides a 'Stabilizer' for US Stock Investment

It is worth noting that in its early August monetary policy statement, the State Bank of Vietnam reiterated its policy direction of maintaining foreign exchange market stability and ensuring the facilitation of cross-border investment. Vietnam's foreign exchange reserves have recently stabilized above USD 110 billion, providing a solid safety cushion for the VND exchange rate. This creates a relatively stable macro environment for Vietnamese investors participating in the US stock market.

The US Stock Boot Camp reminds students that despite intensified short-term market volatility, Vietnam's policy orientation of encouraging residents to engage in reasonable overseas asset allocation remains unchanged. Investors should fully utilize the current pullback window, combined with the systematic trading framework provided by the Boot Camp, to complete the optimization and upgrade of their investment portfolios and fully prepare for the upcoming AI application boom.