On August 5th, in Eastern Time, the US stock market put on a "paradise and hell" show: the Dow Jones Industrial Average renewed its record high for the third consecutive trading day, closing up 0.49% at 54,349.12 points; while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices both declined, falling by 0.17% to 7,723.55 points and 0.83% to 26,363.44 points, respectively. The drag on the Nasdaq was the "earnings report shock" from two major tech stocks—commercial aerospace and AI giant SpaceX plummeted by over 13% after disclosing its first quarterly report post-IPO, and chip giant AMD suffered a sharp decline of over 7% due to earnings guidance missing aggressive expectations. On one side was the Dow's high and capital rotation; on the other, the AI computing arms race faced a test from profitability realities. Behind this divergence, is it another warning of an "AI bubble," or a new starting point for the August market? For Vietnamese investors who are systematically studying the US stock market, understanding this structural divergence is more important than chasing daily gains or losses. SpaceX's First Earnings Report: Doubled Revenue Fails to Halt Selling Frenzy After market close on August 4th, SpaceX released its first quarterly report since its June 12th IPO. The data showed that in the second quarter of 2026, SpaceX achieved total revenue of $7.814 billion, a year-on-year increase of 92%, significantly exceeding the market expectation of $6.9 billion. Net loss narrowed from $1.008 billion in the same period last year to $541 million, a reduction of 46%; adjusted EBITDA grew by 191% to $3.538 billion, with an earnings per share of $0.09, which was also better than the expected $0.26. On the surface, this was a "successful opening" report that would satisfy investors. However, one figure in the earnings report instantly cooled market enthusiasm—capital expenditures in the second quarter reached $18.369 billion, a year-on-year increase of 550%, with approximately $15.8 billion invested in AI computing infrastructure, far exceeding the average analyst expectation of $13.22 billion. By business segment, AI business revenue reached $2.561 billion with adjusted profit of $1.146 billion, a month-on-month increase of 213%; while traditional aerospace business revenue was $962 million, but operating losses expanded to $542 million. The market logic was straightforward: the "arms race" in AI capital expenditure was consuming profits. Despite Musk's promise in a conference call that the company's annualized revenue would exceed $100 billion by December 2026, and plans to exclusively procure all computing infrastructure from Nvidia, these "grand narratives" failed to stop the stock price from falling. On August 5th, SpaceX closed at $108.27, a single-day drop of over 13%, with a market capitalization evaporation of about $225 billion, bringing the total market cap down to $1.43 trillion, which was surpassed by Meta. Since reaching a peak of $225.64 a week after its IPO, the stock has nearly halved, with a cumulative market cap evaporation exceeding $1.5 trillion. What excites short sellers even more is that up to 912 million restricted shares will be unlocked this Thursday (August 6th); S3 Partners data shows that short interest has risen to approximately 34% of the freely traded shares, and "selling is irresistible" has become the mainstream judgment on Wall Street. AMD Earnings Shock: Why Did Outperformance Lead to a Rebound Decline? AMD's experience mirrors that of SpaceX. The second-quarter earnings report from this "second pole" AI chipmaker showed both revenue and profit exceeding market expectations, with the data center business continuing to benefit from the AI infrastructure investment boom. However, the third-quarter revenue guidance failed to meet the high expectations of some aggressive investors, leading to a stock drop of over 9% after-hours, and a decline exceeding 7% on August 5th, with the market capitalization falling below $800 billion. It is worth noting that before the earnings release, AMD's stock had risen by over double in the year, significantly outperforming the general market, and its valuation had already priced in the expectation of accelerated growth in the AI chip business. When the actual data is merely good rather than "super explosive," profit-taking becomes a rational choice. This reveals an important market pattern: at the high end of the AI narrative, the market is not pricing "goodness," but "exceeding expectations"—which is precisely the "expectation gap" trading logic repeatedly emphasized by the US stock market practitioners. Behind the Nasdaq's new high: Capital shifts from "speculative to tangible" and sector rotation In sharp contrast to the coolness in tech stocks, the Nasdaq rose by 1.71% on August 4th and another 0.49% on August 5th, setting a record for the third consecutive day. On August 5th, six out of the eleven major sectors of the S&P 500 rose and five fell. The materials sector led the charge with a 1.54% increase, and the healthcare sector rose by 1.34%. Capital is shifting from the highly valued AI computing chain to "value pockets" with more certain profitability. Two major macroeconomic variables are driving this rotation: first, the market anticipates progress in US-Iran negotiations and a moderation in the Strait of Hormuz situation, causing international oil prices to drop by over 6% in a single day, which significantly eased import inflation pressures; second, the simultaneous rise in gold and silver prices, driven by intertwined safe-haven and rebalancing demands. Meanwhile, Nvidia rose by over 4% against the trend, achieving five consecutive days of gains, with its total market capitalization reaching $5.3 trillion. This shows a clear divergence between the AI leaders and the "second tier"—where both strong performers and valuation cleansing are occurring simultaneously. Cooling employment data: Policy suspense before nonfarm payrolls At the macroeconomic level, the ADP "mini-nonfarm" data released on August 5th surprised the market: private sector employment in the US only increased by 44,000 in July, far below the expected 65,000, a significant drop from the revised 95,000 in June, and even below the lower bound of the range predicted by all 26 economists (50,000 to 101,000). The signal of a cooling job market, combined with the Federal Reserve's "wait-and-see" stance at the July interest rate meeting, has made the market's game over the year's interest rate path more intense—some institutions expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates at least once before the end of the year to cope with inflation resilience. On the evening of August 7th Beijing time, the US July nonfarm payrolls report will be officially released. This will be the first complete employment data after the July Fed meeting, and its performance will directly determine the market's pricing for the September interest rate decision. For short-term traders, this is an event window that requires high vigilance; for medium-to-long-term investors, the marginal changes in employment data are the core clues for judging the profit and valuation centers of US stocks. The path of the US dollar's interest rates will also directly affect the USD/VND trend and emerging market capital flows, requiring Vietnamese investors to incorporate the exchange rate variable into their overall cross-border holdings considerations. Vietnamese investors' August offensive and defensive strategy: Three questions determine the direction Returning to the practical level. For Vietnamese investors who follow US stocks, the keyword for the August market is "divergence" and "validation." The US stock market practitioners suggest reviewing their positions from three dimensions before the nonfarm payroll data is released:

• Question 1: Does the position size match the volatility expectation? The 13% daily swing of SpaceX and the 9% drop in AMD's earnings report remind us that high-volatility stocks must be managed with strict position sizing. Single stock positions should not exceed 5%–10% of the portfolio, and stop-loss discipline must be pre-set.
• Question 2: Is the holding logic based on "narrative" or "cash flow"? The AI capital expenditure story is still in the middle, but the market has begun to test the "input-output" closed loop with quarterly results. Priority should be given to companies with controllable capital expenditure intensity, positive free cash flow, and buyback-supported valuations, while avoiding purely conceptual stocks.
• Question 3: Is the linkage between exchange rates and capital flows taken into account? If the Federal Reserve shifts to a hawkish stance, a stronger US dollar may suppress the Vietnamese Dong and trigger capital repatriation to the US, negatively affecting the performance of the Vietnamese stock market and the converted returns of cross-border portfolios. It is necessary to track the foreign exchange policy of the State Bank of Vietnam simultaneously.

In terms of sector allocation, short-term attention should be paid to defensive sectors such as healthcare and consumer staples, as well as aviation and logistics, which benefit from falling oil prices. In the medium term, the focus should remain on leading players in the AI industry chain who possess pricing power—the divergence during earnings season is precisely the best window to distinguish "true leaders" from "followers." Every round of "earnings season correction" is the market re-pricing assets with real money; understanding the pricing logic is far more valuable than guessing the daily gain or loss. The increased volatility in August is a litmus test for the investment system and discipline.

(This article is for market analysis and practical teaching reference and does not constitute specific investment advice. Stock market investment involves risks, and entry must be cautious.)