On Tuesday, August 4th, in Eastern Time, Wall Street experienced its most vigorous surge of the month: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 907.47 points, a gain of 1.71%, marking the largest single-day increase in two months; the S&P 500 Index rose by 1.79%, achieving its first closing above the 7700 integer mark in history; and the Nasdaq Composite Index surged by 2.59%. Both the Dow and the S&P set new closing records, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index leading global major indices with an impressive gain of 6.55%. The synergy between diplomatic progress in US-Iran negotiations and the robust AI chip industry has driven a comprehensive strengthening of global risk assets. Three Major Indices Hit New Highs: Clear Signal of Capital Shifting from Bonds to Stocks As of the close, the Dow stood at 54,085.88 points, the Nasdaq at 26,584.99 points, and the S&P 500 at 7,736.52 points. Looking at industry sectors, technology stocks led the pack with a 4.09% increase, followed by raw materials, industrials, and financials. In contrast, the energy sector declined by 0.49%, and utilities fell by 0.60%, clearly illustrating the shift of capital from bonds to stocks and toward risk assets. Large banking stocks rallied collectively; Morgan Stanley rose by 2.76%, Goldman Sachs by 2.62%, and Citibank by 2.44%. The upward trend in financials is often viewed as a barometer of the market's confidence in a "soft landing" for the economy. Concurrently, New York Fed President Williams stated that inflationary pressures are gradually easing, though the option to raise interest rates remains if necessary, maintaining an overall "dovish" tone. Coupled with the decline in US Treasury yields, this provided additional support for equity assets. Philly Semi Soars 6.55%: Storage Supercycle Ignites Chip Market The chip sector was undoubtedly the star of the day. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged by 748.91 points to 12,179.26, achieving a single-day gain of 6.55%, with individual stocks showing broad gains: Amsci Technologies rose by 17.36%, Intel surged by 10.84% and re-crossed the $100 mark, and both Seagate and Micron saw gains exceeding 7%. Micron closed at $892.67, returning to the trillion-dollar market capitalization club. Qualcomm, AMD, Broadcom, Nexperia, and Applied Materials all rose by over 5%, while TSMC ADR rose by 2.72%, and UMC ADR surged by 10.38%. Nvidia closed up 2.56%, with its continuous strength driving a full recovery in sentiment across the AI hardware industry chain. The industrial logic behind this chip rally is a dual resonance between AI computing power demand and the storage price cycle. As the demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), large-capacity DDR5, and enterprise SSDs for AI training and inference grows rapidly, the storage chip price uptrend is expected to continue throughout 2026. Bank of America reiterated a "Buy" rating on Micron during its pullback, setting a target price of $1,550, arguing that the recent retreat was a "prime buying opportunity." Following the sharp correction at the end of July, the strong counterattack by the chip sector from its lows is being viewed by some institutions as the signal for the "second wave" of the AI trend to begin. Expectations of Hormuz Strait Resumption: Geopolitical Premium in Oil Prices Accelerates Clearing In the news, US Treasury Secretary Bessant stated that an agreement to restore navigation in the Strait of Hormuz could be reached as early as Tuesday or Wednesday, and he added that international oil prices still have room to fall after hundreds of ships stranded in the Persian Gulf resume sailing. The Iranian Foreign Ministry confirmed positive progress in both technical and political aspects of negotiations with Oman. US Secretary of State Rubio cautiously stated that the agreement has not been finalized, with Qatar, Pakistan, and Oman jointly promoting continued contact among the parties. Consequently, New York crude oil futures plummeted by 5.69% to $75.77 per barrel, and Brent crude suffered a sharp drop of 5.26% to $79.36 per barrel, with both recording a decline exceeding 5% for two consecutive trading days. The oil price decline is a multi-layered positive for the market: it directly lowers inflation expectations, providing space for the Federal Reserve's policies, and alleviates global supply chain cost pressures. On the day, COMEX gold rose by 1.07% to $4134.20 per ounce, and silver surged by 3.27%, with safe-haven and risk assets strengthening in tandem, reflecting the market's optimistic pricing for "de-escalation and moderating inflation." However, shipping analysts remain cautious about the transport speed after the Strait resumes navigation—currently, fewer than 10 oil tankers pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily, far below normal levels. Iran also emphasized that the Strait will remain closed if the US does not lift the port blockade and resume fulfilling previous Memoranda of Understanding, meaning the deal still has variables.

The "Ice and Fire" of Earnings Season: AI Capital Expenditure is a Double-Edged Sword

Another main thread driving the market is strong earnings reports. Palantir and Caterpillar exceeded expectations, with the former surging over 15% after the market close. But the other side of the earnings season is also worth watching: SpaceX briefly rose by 9.43% during the day but subsequently fell by over 7% after the market close due to its first earnings report since listing showing a significant surge in capital expenditure. AMD rose by 7% during the day but fell by about 9% after the market close due to concerns over capital expenditure and earnings guidance. This "ice and fire" pattern is the core contradiction in the current US stock AI trading: the annual capital expenditure of hundreds of billions of dollars by tech giants is both the "engine" of AI industry orders and an increasingly scrutinized measure of market returns. The market is moving from the "storytelling" phase to the "return verification" phase; whether capital expenditure can smoothly translate into revenue and profit will determine whether the AI trend can spread from the frenzy of a few leaders to a broad bull market. This is also the fundamental reason for the recent divergence in the performance of chip stocks and software stocks—capital is voting for "tangible orders" with real money.

The Vietnamese Investor Perspective: Triple Signals from Oil Prices, the Dollar, and Capital Flows

For Vietnamese investors, this round of US stock activity releases three noteworthy signals:

• Oil Price Decline Benefits Vietnam: As a net energy importer, the drop in crude oil prices directly reduces import costs and imported inflation pressures, helping the State Bank of Vietnam retain greater flexibility in foreign exchange and interest rate policies, and indirectly supporting the Vietnamese Dong exchange rate.
• Temporary Easing of Dollar Pressure: The decline in US Treasury yields weakens the logic of a strong dollar, and the depreciation pressure on the USD/VND exchange rate is expected to ease; for Vietnamese investors holding USD assets, this is equivalent to an extra "currency dividend."

Recovery in Cross-border Capital Flows: Rising global risk appetite has driven capital back into equity markets, and US stocks maintain their solid status as the global liquidity "reservoir." For Vietnamese investors, allocating to US market leaders through international brokers or fund channels remains an important path to diversify country risk and share in the global technology dividends.

However, it should be noted that August is historically one of the weakest months for US stock capital flows. The Goldman Sachs trading team recently suggested that the S&P 500 lacks the "fuel" for a short-term breakthrough and may continue to fluctuate within the range of the past two months; JPMorgan strategists also predict that technology stocks may "take a backseat" in the second half of the year, while cyclical stocks are expected to lead. For individual investors, rather than chasing sectors with single-day surges, it is better to anchor to the certainty of industry trends—AI computing power, storage supercycles, and the restructuring of the energy landscape remain the most worthy structural themes to track over the next few quarters. In terms of allocation rhythm, building positions in batches and adding to leaders during pullbacks is more prudent than chasing high gains all at once.

Conclusion

At the start of August, Wall Street signaled a return to risk appetite with consecutive two-day gains, but the sharp divergence in earnings season also reminds us: a bull market is never a straight road. For Vietnamese investors, understanding the dual logic of "geopolitics + industry" behind every candlestick in US stocks is more important than chasing short-term gains or losses. In the grand game of global asset allocation, maintaining discipline and diversifying the layout is what allows for steady progress amidst volatility.