September 2026 marked a critical juncture for global capital markets. Rising expectations of a Fed rate cut, coupled with a strong rebound in tech stocks, pushed the major US stock indices higher. Meanwhile, the scale of Vietnamese capital flowing into US stocks reached a new high, becoming a key indicator of global capital flows. For Vietnamese investors, how to seize cross-border investment opportunities against the backdrop of Fed policy and the divergence in tech stocks has become a focal point of market attention.

1. Rising Expectations of Fed Rate Cuts: The Core Driver of the US Tech Stock Rebound

Entering September 2026, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction became the market's focus. Although inflation data still showed some pressure, signs of cooling in the job market significantly boosted expectations for a rate cut. Fed Chair Powell hinted in a recent speech that if economic data continues to weaken, a rate cut could be brought forward to the end of 2026. This dovish signal ignited market sentiment, especially in the tech stock sector.

As the 'bellwethers' of the US stock market, tech stocks are highly sensitive to interest rate changes. Expectations of a rate cut mean lower corporate financing costs and an increase in the present value of future cash flows, thereby driving a valuation recovery for tech stocks. Since September, the Nasdaq index has risen by over 5%, with AI-related stocks like NVIDIA and Microsoft performing particularly well. NVIDIA's stock hit a new all-time high in September, with its market cap surpassing $3 trillion, becoming one of the world's most valuable companies. Microsoft's continued investment in AI has driven its stock price to climb steadily, boosting the Nasdaq.

However, a clear divergence has emerged within the tech stock sector. Some AI concept stocks have corrected due to their excessive gains in the previous period, while tech giants with solid underlying performance continue to rise. This divergence reflects market concerns about the commercialization potential of AI technology, while also highlighting investors' preference for 'genuine growth'. For Vietnamese investors, understanding the logic behind this divergence is key to seizing investment opportunities.

2. Vietnamese Capital Flows to US Stocks Hit New High: The Driving Factors Behind It

The scale of Vietnamese capital flowing into US stocks reached a new high in September 2026, driven mainly by three factors:

• Global Asset Allocation Demand: Vietnam's economy is growing steadily with ample foreign exchange reserves, but its domestic capital market has limited capacity. By allocating to US stocks, Vietnamese investors achieve global diversification of their assets and reduce risks from a single market. The strong performance of tech stocks, in particular, has attracted the attention of Vietnamese capital.
• Exchange Rate Factors: The USD/VND exchange rate remained relatively stable in September, even appreciating slightly. This lowers the cost for Vietnamese investors to allocate to US stocks while enhancing the value preservation of their dollar-denominated assets. The State Bank of Vietnam has recently maintained a prudent monetary policy, avoiding significant exchange rate fluctuations and providing a stable environment for cross-border investment.
• Policy Support: In recent years, the Vietnamese government has promoted the opening of the capital account and simplified cross-border investment procedures. In 2026, Vietnam further relaxed restrictions on US stock investments, allowing more individual investors to participate in the US stock market through compliant channels. This policy change lowered the entry barrier for Vietnamese investors and boosted capital flows into US stocks.

Data shows that in September 2026, the scale of Vietnamese capital flowing into US stocks reached a historical high, a year-on-year increase of over 30%. Among these, tech stocks accounted for more than 60%, becoming the key area for Vietnamese capital allocation.

3. Investment Strategies Amid Tech Stock Divergence: The Offense and Defense for Vietnamese Investors

Facing the divergence in tech stocks, Vietnamese investors need to adopt differentiated investment strategies, seizing opportunities while controlling risks.

1. Focus on Tech Giants with Core Competitiveness

Among the diverging tech stocks, giant enterprises with core competitiveness are more resilient. For example, NVIDIA, leveraging its dominant position in the AI chip sector, continues to launch innovative products, supporting its stock price growth. Microsoft, with its investments in AI and cloud computing, has become a 'winner in the AI era'. Vietnamese investors can share in the long-term growth of the AI boom by allocating to these tech giants.

2. Focus on Sub-sectors with Confirmed Performance

Besides tech giants, some companies in niche tech sub-sectors also hold investment value. For instance, companies in the AI application layer, such as Salesforce and Adobe, have mature business models and predictable performance growth. Although these companies may not see the same gains as chip stocks, they offer higher stability, making them suitable for Vietnamese investors with lower risk tolerance.

3. Use Currency Hedging Tools to Manage Risk

When allocating to US stocks, Vietnamese investors need to pay attention to exchange rate risk. Fluctuations in the USD/VND rate can impact investment returns. They can hedge against this risk using tools like forward foreign exchange contracts and options to lock in investment costs. Additionally, choosing dollar-denominated assets can also mitigate the impact of exchange rate volatility to some extent.

4. Diversify Investments to Avoid Concentrated Risk

Despite the strong performance of tech stocks, investing in a single sector carries high risk. Vietnamese investors should diversify their funds across assets in different industries and regions, such as the tech, healthcare, and consumer sectors in the US market, as well as the domestic Vietnamese market, to achieve risk diversification.

4. Outlook on Fed Policy: The Key to Future Market Trends

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction will continue to influence US stock market trends. If rate cuts materialize as expected, tech stocks may continue to benefit; if inflation rebounds, the Fed may delay rate cuts, and tech stocks could face pressure. Vietnamese investors need to closely monitor the Fed's rate decisions, inflation data, and employment reports to adjust their investment strategies in a timely manner.

Furthermore, global geopolitical risks are another factor to consider. A easing of the Middle East situation could reduce market risk aversion and boost risk assets; conversely, a deterioration could trigger market volatility. Vietnamese investors should remain attentive to the global macro environment and respond flexibly to market changes.

5. Conclusion: US Stock Allocation Recommendations for Vietnamese Investors

In September 2026, rising expectations of a Fed rate cut fueled a rebound in US tech stocks, with Vietnamese capital flows to US stocks hitting a new high. For Vietnamese investors, allocating to US stocks, especially tech stocks, is an effective way to share in global economic growth and the AI boom. However, risks from the divergence in tech stocks must be considered. Adopting strategies such as focusing on core enterprises, targeting sub-sectors with confirmed performance, using currency tools for risk management, and diversifying investments can help achieve stable returns.

In the future, as Vietnam's capital account further opens and global capital flows intensify, the role of Vietnamese investors in global asset allocation will become even more significant. By reasonably allocating to US stocks, Vietnamese investors can seize more investment opportunities in the global market and achieve the preservation and appreciation of their assets.