1. September US Stock Market: Tech Stock Divergence and Index Volatility

Entering September 2026, the US stock market continued its volatile trend from August, with the three major indices seeking direction amid fluctuations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all saw adjustments to varying degrees, with the Nasdaq experiencing more significant volatility due to its higher tech stock weighting. Data shows that in the first three weeks of September, the Nasdaq fell 1.2% cumulatively, while the Dow rose 0.3% and the S&P 500 remained flat. This divergence mainly stems from sharp adjustments within tech stocks.

As the core driver of the US stock market, tech stocks underwent a shift from AI hype to rational regression in 2026. AI leaders like NVIDIA and Microsoft performed well in August's earnings season, but since September, market concerns about AI capital expenditures have intensified, leading to pullbacks in some AI concept stocks. For example, NVIDIA's stock fell 3.5% in the first week of September, while traditional tech giants like Apple and Google remained relatively firm due to stable performance. This divergence reflects the market's reevaluation of AI investment logic: shifting from "concept hype" to "profit verification".

1.1 Adjustment After AI Hype: Divergence Within Tech Stocks

In 2026, AI became a core theme in global capital markets, driving significant gains in US tech stocks. However, since September, the market has begun to focus on the actual profitability of AI companies. Taking NVIDIA as an example, its Q2 2026 earnings report showed a 45% year-on-year increase in AI chip revenue, but the market worries about weak subsequent growth. Additionally, some AI startups saw sharp stock price drops due to tightened financing conditions, further exacerbating tech stock divergence. This adjustment is not accidental; it reflects the market's return from "emotion-driven" to "fundamental-driven" investing.

Meanwhile, traditional tech giants, with stable cash flows and mature business models, showed strong resilience amid volatility. Apple's recently released iPhone 16 series exceeded sales expectations, driving its stock up 2.1%; Microsoft's cloud computing business continued to grow, keeping its stock firm. This divergence reminds investors that tech stock investing requires greater emphasis on corporate profit quality and business sustainability.

2. Fed Rate Cut Expectations: A "Double-Edged Sword" for Market Sentiment

The Fed's monetary policy is a key factor affecting US stock market trends. In September 2026, market expectations of a Fed rate cut warmed up, but there were disagreements on the timing and magnitude. According to the latest Fed meeting minutes, officials had differing views on inflation trends: some believed inflation remained above target levels and advocated cautious rate cuts, while others thought economic growth was slowing and supported early rate cuts to support the economy.

This divergence caused market sentiment volatility. On one hand, rate cut expectations boosted valuations of growth stocks, especially tech stocks, as low interest rates facilitate corporate financing and valuation increases. On the other hand, if rate cuts are delayed, the market may worry about a recession, leading to declines in risk assets. Vietnamese investors need to closely monitor Fed signals, as the US dollar exchange rate and global capital flows are closely related to Fed policy.

2.1 How Do Rate Cut Expectations Affect Vietnamese Capital Flows?

For Vietnamese investors, Fed rate cut expectations directly impact their cross-border investment decisions. First, rate cuts may lead to US dollar depreciation, affecting the USD/VND exchange rate. If the dollar depreciates, the Vietnamese dong appreciates relatively, potentially increasing cross-border investment costs for Vietnamese investors but also attracting more capital inflows into the Vietnamese market. Second, rate cut expectations alter global capital risk appetite; if the market expects rate cuts, risk assets (like US stocks) may be favored, potentially expanding the scale of Vietnamese capital flows into US stocks.

Data shows that in August 2026, the scale of Vietnamese capital flows into US stocks reached a historical high, mainly due to dovish signals from the Fed boosting market sentiment. Since September, despite tech stock divergence, Vietnamese capital has continued to flow in, reflecting Vietnamese investors' recognition of the long-term value of US stocks. However, if Fed rate cuts are delayed, Vietnamese capital flows may face adjustments, and investors need to manage risks.

3. New Trends in Vietnamese Capital Flows: From "Passive Allocation" to "Active Selection"

In recent years, the scale of Vietnamese capital flows into US stocks has continued to grow, reaching a new high in 2026. Behind this trend is the increasing demand of Vietnamese investors for global asset allocation. With Vietnam's rapid economic development and growing household wealth, more Vietnamese investors are seeking diversified investment channels, and US stocks, as the world's largest capital market, have become a key choice.

However, since September, new trends have emerged in Vietnamese capital flows: shifting from "passive allocation" to "active selection". In the past, Vietnamese investors may have preferred buying US stock ETFs or index funds for diversification; now, more investors are focusing on individual stocks, especially tech and growth stocks. This shift reflects a deeper understanding of the US stock market among Vietnamese investors and improved risk tolerance.

3.1 Adjustments in Vietnamese Investors' US Stock Allocation Strategies

Amid tech stock divergence, Vietnamese investors' US stock allocation strategies are also adjusting. On one hand, investors are paying more attention to corporate fundamentals, choosing stocks with stable profits and sustainable businesses, such as Apple and Microsoft. On the other hand, some investors are starting to position for long-term opportunities in the AI field, despite short-term volatility, as they are optimistic about its long-term growth potential. Additionally, Vietnamese investors are also focusing on dividend-paying US stocks, such as Coca-Cola and Johnson & Johnson, to obtain stable cash flows.

This strategic adjustment helps reduce investment risks and improve the stability of returns. At the same time, Vietnamese investors are also using financial tools to hedge exchange rate risks, such as foreign exchange forward contracts, to mitigate the impact of USD/VND exchange rate fluctuations. These changes reflect the maturity of Vietnam's capital market and the enhanced risk awareness of investors.

4. Outlook: How Can Vietnamese Investors Seize US Stock Opportunities?

Looking ahead to Q4 2026, the US stock market still faces many uncertainties, but in the long run, US stocks, as a gathering place for global leading enterprises, still have investment value. For Vietnamese investors, the following points need attention:

• Monitor Fed Policy Signals: The timing and magnitude of Fed rate cuts will directly affect market sentiment; investors need to closely follow FOMC meetings and officials' remarks to adjust strategies promptly.
• Select Individual Stocks and Focus on Fundamentals: Amid tech stock divergence, choose companies with stable profits and clear business models, avoiding blind pursuit of hot topics.
• Diversify Investments to Reduce Risk: Do not put all funds into a single market or industry; diversify risks by allocating different types of assets (such as US stocks, Vietnamese stocks, bonds, etc.).
• Use Financial Tools to Hedge Exchange Rate Risk: USD/VND exchange rate fluctuations may affect investment returns; investors can consider using tools like foreign exchange forwards and options to hedge risks.

Additionally, Vietnamese investors should also pay attention to Vietnam's domestic economic data, such as GDP growth, inflation rate, and the State Bank of Vietnam's monetary policy, as these factors affect the VND exchange rate and capital flows. For example, if Vietnam's economy maintains strong growth, the VND may appreciate, reducing cross-border investment costs.

5. Conclusion

In September 2026, the US stock market saw intensified volatility amid tech stock divergence and Fed rate cut expectations, with new changes in the pace of Vietnamese capital flows into US stocks. Investors need to rationally view market fluctuations, focus on fundamental analysis, adjust allocation strategies, and seize long-term investment opportunities. As Vietnam's capital market matures and demand for global asset allocation increases, US stocks will remain an important choice for Vietnamese investors, but risk management is necessary to achieve stable returns.