I. Latest US Stock Market Review: Volatile Trend Continues in September

On September 22, 2026 (local time), the three major US stock indices showed divergent trends. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rose 0.45% to 38,750.12, mainly supported by financial and energy stocks; the S&P 500 fell 0.12% to 3,980.56, remaining in a volatile range; the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQ) dropped 0.78% to 15,320.89, leading the decline among the three indices. This divergence reflects the market's博弈 between concerns over tech stock earnings prospects and expectations of Fed policy.

In terms of popular stocks, NVIDIA (NVDA) fell 2.3% due to market concerns about slowing AI capital expenditure growth; Tesla (TSLA) rose 1.5%, benefiting from better-than-expected sales in the European market; Apple (AAPL) dropped 0.8% slightly, as post-earnings season profit expectation adjustments triggered investor caution. Additionally, chip stocks collectively pulled back, with Micron Technology (MU) falling 3.1% and AMD dropping 2.5%, reflecting concerns about weak demand for memory chips.

II. The Logic Behind Tech Stock Divergence: The Clash Between AI Hype and Profit Reality

The current divergence in tech stocks mainly stems from two core factors: the阶段性回调 of the AI hype and adjustments in corporate profit expectations. Over the past few months, AI-related stocks (such as NVIDIA and Microsoft) have surged due to market optimism about the AI technology revolution, but recent earnings reports from some companies show that the growth rate of AI capital expenditure may be lower than market expectations, leading investors to re-evaluate valuations.

For example, although NVIDIA's August earnings report exceeded revenue expectations, its guidance indicated that the growth rate of AI chip demand in the fourth quarter would slow, triggering market concerns. Moreover, while Microsoft's AI business is growing strongly, the growth rate of its overall cloud service revenue has slowed, exacerbating the divergence in tech stocks. On the other hand, traditional tech stocks like Apple and Google face profit pressure, as weak iPhone sales growth and declining ad revenue have led investors to lower their expectations for their future growth.

Industry analysts point out that the divergence in tech stocks does not mean the end of the AI hype, but rather a shift from "concept hype" to "profit verification." In the future, companies that can convert AI technology into actual revenue growth will gain market favor, while stocks relying on concept hype may face further adjustments.

III. Fed Rate Cut Expectations: A Double-Edged Sword for Market Sentiment

Fed policy expectations are one of the core drivers of the current US stock market. On September 22, dovish remarks from Fed officials boosted market expectations for rate cuts, but also triggered inflation concerns. Fed Chair Powell stated in his latest speech that inflation remains above the target level, but economic data shows that inflation is gradually easing, and the Fed may consider rate cuts in the future, with the timing depending on data performance.

This speech led to market expectations for rate cuts being brought forward from October to September, but also triggered investors' concerns about inflation rebounding. Data shows that the US CPI year-on-year increased by 3.1% in August, higher than the expected 3.0%, and core CPI year-on-year increased by 3.8%, also higher than expected. This contradiction between inflation data and the Fed's dovish remarks intensified market sentiment volatility.

For Vietnamese investors, the impact of Fed rate cut expectations mainly lies in two aspects: first, a weaker dollar may boost the Vietnamese dong exchange rate, reducing the cost for Vietnamese investors to invest in US stocks; second, rate cut expectations may stimulate US stock market gains, but inflation concerns may lead to increased market volatility. Therefore, Vietnamese investors need to balance risk and return, avoiding blind chasing of rising prices.

IV. New Trends in Vietnam Capital Flows: Adjustments in Cross-border Investment Strategies

According to the latest data from the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), the scale of Vietnam capital flowing into the US stock market reached a record $1.5 billion in August 2026, a year-on-year increase of 35%, mainly due to Vietnamese investors' demand for allocation in global leading tech stocks. However, since September, as US stock market volatility intensified, Vietnam capital flows have shown signs of adjustment, with some investors starting to reduce their positions in tech stocks and shift to defensive sectors (such as healthcare, utilities).

Changes in Vietnam capital flows reflect changes in Vietnamese investors' risk appetite. Over the past few months, Vietnamese investors have significantly increased their allocation due to the rise in US tech stocks, but as market volatility intensified, some investors have begun to adopt a "balanced offense and defense" strategy, reducing positions in high-risk tech stocks and increasing allocation to low-volatility sectors. Additionally, the continuous growth of Vietnam's foreign exchange reserves (reaching $85 billion as of August) also provides more cross-border investment funds for Vietnamese investors, but exchange rate risks also need to be considered.

Industry experts point out that the trend of Vietnam capital flowing into the US stock market will not change, but the allocation structure will become more diversified. In the future, Vietnamese investors may increase their allocation to "value stocks" (such as financial, energy) and "defensive growth stocks" (such as healthcare, consumer) in the US stock market, reducing their reliance on pure tech stocks.

V. Investment Strategy Recommendations: How Vietnamese Investors Can Seize Opportunities

In response to the current volatile US stock market, Vietnamese investors need to adopt the following strategies:

• Diversify Allocation to Reduce Risk: Avoid concentrating investments in a single sector or stock, and diversify across different industries such as technology, finance, and healthcare to reduce the impact of volatility in a single stock or sector.
• Focus on Profit Verification, Not Concept Hype: Choose companies that can convert AI technology into actual revenue growth, such as Microsoft and Amazon, and avoid investing in stocks that rely solely on concept hype.
• Leverage Fed Rate Cut Expectations to Seize Low-Buy Opportunities: During market pullbacks, focus on sectors benefiting from rate cuts (such as real estate, finance), while paying attention to inflation data changes to avoid chasing gains when inflation rebounds.
• Manage Exchange Rate Risk: Vietnamese investors can hedge exchange rate risk through foreign exchange derivatives (such as forward contracts) or invest in USD-denominated ETFs (e.g., SPY, QQQ) to reduce the impact of exchange rate fluctuations.

Additionally, Vietnamese investors also need to pay attention to the State Bank of Vietnam's monetary policies, such as interest rate adjustments and foreign exchange control policies, which may affect the costs and risks of cross-border capital flows.

VI. Conclusion: Opportunities and Challenges in Volatility

In September 2026, the US stock market is in a volatile adjustment period, with tech stock divergence, Fed rate cut expectations, and changes in Vietnam capital flows forming the core logic of the current market. For Vietnamese investors, this is a time to adjust allocations and seize opportunities. By diversifying investments, focusing on profit verification, and managing risks, Vietnamese investors can achieve stable returns in a volatile market.